Vision 2030
| Tags | Overview |
|---|---|
| Publication Date |
The European Union has developed a mobility vision for 2050. By 2030, they envision the admission of more than 30 million zero-emission cars on European roads, doubled high-speed rail traffic across Europe, as well as 100 cities having reached carbon-neutrality. [1]
Content
Urban Passenger Transportation in 2030
For the last decades, city development has been defined by the optimal employment of private cars. In the future, this is likely to change: cities around the world are struggling with air- and noise pollution, while simultaneously, electric vehicles become much more capable and cheaper to produce. Provided that complementary charging infrastructure is built at sufficient speed, this means that electric cars could overtake gas cars in terms of sales as well as market share by 2030.
However, as policy makers want to stimulate the transformation of mobility, using private cars will become more and more inconvenient with narrower streets for cars, more expensive parking and more, wider bike lanes and car-free zones. [2] Hence, we expect cars to become less important for urban citizens in general. As cities put more emphasis on alternative means of transportation, the share of trips done by cars will decrease in the future.
A decreasing need for an own car among urban residents, in turn, offers a chance for car sharing services to replace car ownership for a substantial part of households. The size of this effect depends on regulation as well as availability, reliability and interoperability of providers. In other words, if car sharing providers start cooperating with public transport, secure exclusive parking permits and grow their fleet size, they will likely become a viable alternative to car ownership in the next few decades. This development depends on the subjective value that consumers place on car ownership, however. If consumers will continue to highly value car ownership beyond its practical use and cost efficiency, the growth of car sharing will be limited.
Local public transport is likely to profit heavily from political initiatives to free large cities from extensive car usage. The adoption of local public transport will depend on future attractiveness of the local public transport offers as well as on attractiveness of urban car usage. Given actions on both levers, for example, in Germany, local public transport usage is expected to grow by 30% until 2030. However, local public transport is subject to regulations as well: In the EU for instance, a regulation required local public transport providers that 65% of new vehicles until 2030 must be electric. [3] Due to the manifold challenges facing the development and employment of Hyperloop Transportation Systems (HTS), it is very unlikely that there will be fully operational routes by 2030. Since many governments do believe in the potential of HTS, there will be numerous test tracks across the world.
With increasing usage of public transportation, solving first- and last-mile transportation problems is a major concern for mobility providers in the future. If there is no convenient and affordable possibility to reach public transit, those who can afford one are likely to opt for a private car. Micro-vehicles such as electric scooters are a practical solution for this problem. Surveys show that the support for electric scooters is highest among lower-income consumers who depend on public transportation solutions. Concerns against many micro-vehicles, considering reckless drivers as potential threat to pedestrians as well as issues with official approval will need to be resolved in order for these solutions to persist. [4]
In addition to the first- and last-mile issue, decreasing trip lengths for everyday commutes make biking, walking and electric scooters a more viable option for everyday mobility. We therefore see these types of mobility to continue their upwards trend and become more widespread in urban areas.
Aerial and maritime mobility can become complementing modes of mobility in certain urban settings, developing emission-free propulsion systems. Drones, for instance, as means of transport for people will most likely be primarily employed as airport shuttles before being commercially available on a broader scale as “point-to-point air taxis” within cities and their suburbs. [5] They however require major investments into the infrastructure to make the application of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) feasible: Starting and Landing Platforms will have to be introduced, the air traffic has to be managed, legal frameworks for accidents and liability have to be introduced and the constant communication with data points has to be ensured.
In water-bound means of mobility, alternative propulsion systems are already on the verge of being commercially available for smaller ships and ferries. A realistic concept for water-bound mobility in and near cities will be the connection of employment centers or developed outer-city residential areas to cities’ ferry networks. In 10-15 years, it is realistic to see an increasing number of lighter ships running on alternative fuel types while fossil fuels get replaced gradually. [6]
Seeing that urban mobility will move away from heavy usage of privately owned cars to multimodal ways of transportation, mobility management will be a decisive influencing factor to consumers' mobility behavior and preferences. In order to cater to people's need for flexibility in public transport, there will be mobile applications uniting all available modes of public transportation and making personalized suggestions based on the user's preferences. [7]
Long-distance Passenger Transportation in 2030
With growing cities and people being able to connect with anyone from anywhere at any time, long-distance travel will be an essential means of connecting cities and people.
Intercity travel via passenger car cannot be decoupled from urban car usage. People who rely on cars to move around in cities are likely to do the same when traveling city to city. As car ownership levels traditionally rise along with income, one could project an increase in car ownership levels. [8]
On the other hand, urbanization along with upcoming vehicle on demand services however draw a picture of a trend of moving away from owning a car. A major factor deciding over levels of car ownership in the upcoming decade are political decisions and incentive schemes for urban car usage.
Current levels of car ownership might first have to drop significantly before car sharing services (i.e. vehicle on demand) gain relevance in intercity mobility. Assuming that car ownership levels will not tremendously decline until 2030, we can estimate that vehicle on demand services have a long way to go to become an important model for intercity transportation.
Looking at intercity bus transportation, we can observe slow but steady increases in the market for intercity buses, being highest in the Asia / Pacific Region. Yet, growth of intercity bus transportation is limited due to high travel times and comparably low comfort levels. By 2030, intercity bus providers however have the opportunity to leverage possibilities in onboard entertainment & productivity, which could mean that buses (as well as trains) could have considerable advantages over cars in terms of making use of travel time - for the time being until cars reach higher levels of autonomy.
Travel by train currently is one of the most important means of intercity travel and is estimated to even increase in importance in the near future. This will be driven by both increasing regulatory support and consumer demand. The electrification of railway networks will be further driven forward to close electrification gaps and enable the employment of electric trains on both national and international routes. Calling out 2021 as the European Year of Rail underlines the general acknowledgement of trains as forthcoming prioritized means of transportation.
However, trains will need to become more attractive for consumers in terms of punctuality, convenience and costs. Therefore, the EU plans to unify the 27 national railway systems and operators to reinforce the single market and facilitate the purchasing of international tickets. [9]
An integral part of this strategy is the creation of the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) which not only entails the reactivation and development of new railway tracks but also roads, waterways, maritime shipping routes, ports, airports, etc. Considering the railway network, the EU plans to have the core network including the most important connections to be completed by 2030. The total costs of developing the necessary infrastructure for this project is expected to surmount to more than 1.5 trillion Euros between 2010 and 2030. The completion of the TEN-T core network alone is expected to cost as much as 500 billion Euros. However, these costs would also have further consequences for society and economy: The establishment of the network is expected to create 1.8% in additional GDP and create approximately ten million jobs. [10] [11]
Policy-makers want to offer multimodal fares on one common platform which enables consumers to seamlessly switch between transportation modes. [12]
Moreover, the increasing urbanization and evolution of mega-cities will push the development and extension of high-speed railway lines globally. In China, demand for high-speed connections between the 14 mega-cities with over five million citizens each already existed in the 2020s, which pushed the development of the world's largest (high-speed) railway network. Similar effects are to be expected globally in areas with new mega-cities. [13]
Long-distance intercity travel of course also heavily relies on planes as a means of transportation. In terms of alternative propulsion systems, many aircrafts are quite far away from being commercially available but seem to yield promising results in field testing. And overall, it is very hard to predict what the future holds for airplanes as a means of travel for passengers. The main focus for 2030 will most likely lie on reshaping airlines’ business models towards more modal flight networks or novel seating concepts to enable social travel.
Overall, planes as a means of long-distance travel are currently irreplaceable by other means of long-distance travel and still have a long way to go in terms of alternative propulsion systems. By 2030, planes will most likely still have similar (or even more) significance for long-distance travel compared to today.
Cargo Transport in 2030
Over the last few years, many novel delivery options, like same day delivery or express shipping, were introduced and shaped how supply chain processes were organized and carried out. This volatility in processes and standards of cargo transport will most likely persist and result in significant changes to cargo supply chains by 2030.
Deeply ingrained technological capabilities of OEMs as well as the relative TCO advantage of Diesel powertrains will lead to fuel cells remaining relatively popular and cost effective for the time being. However, progress will be especially evident with battery-based electric, hybrid and LNG powertrains. Battery-powered CVs will be most common for within- and between-city transport for light and medium duty vehicles. TCO and cost advantages will not be as pronounced for long distance transport and heavy duty vehicles, meaning adoption rates will not be as high in these use cases. As for hydrogen fuel cell usability, this will depend on the development of supply chains, a stable and affordable price as well as necessary infrastructure. This is unlikely to happen area-wide across the whole of Europe because of extensive development yet to be achieved in all of these areas.
Continuing progress in autonomous driving technology will make platooning and the more efficient use of CVs more standard. Further, this progress will continue to reduce fatal road accidents caused by CVs and increase road safety overall, within cities as well as (and especially) over long distances. However, this will depend on the widespread renewal and update of most CV fleets and does not incorporate foreign CV traffic through Germany. Autonomous driving technologies will not be fully capable of handling an entire transport route without human intervention, however, and thus will require drivers to be present and able to intervene, especially in the last legs of the journey — typically within cities (due to more complex traffic situations). Therefore, heavy duty CV use cases will be the adoption leaders of autonomous driving by 2030. [14]
Goods transportation on railways will increase slightly but today’s challenges for the industry are too large to be overcome by 2030. However, the new regulations mentioned for passenger transportation will also influence cargo railway transportation.
Cargo transport via air could see major changes by 2030: While cargo planes still need time for significant changes to their propulsion systems and will have to focus on digitization of its e-commerce platforms and flight networks, last-mile-delivery could face a revolution. By introducing air as an alternative to congested inner-city streets, delivery drones will reshape the way we deliver and receive parcels and mail and are estimated to be commercially available in 5 years. Not only could we see a future of much less expensive, but also faster deliveries while simultaneously massively reducing carbon emissions. [15] [16] [17]
The application of delivery drones (and passenger drones as well) in urban environments requires major investments into the infrastructure to make the application of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) feasible: Starting and Landing Platforms will have to be introduced, the air traffic has to be managed, legal frameworks for accidents and liability have to be introduced and the constant communication with data points has to be ensured. [18]
In water-bound means of mobility, alternative propulsion systems are currently on the horizon but still quite far away from commercial availability for cargo and container ships. But initiatives like the Getting to Zero Coalition, with partners like the World Economic Forum, the Friends of Ocean action and the Global Maritime Forum are aiming for fully operational zero emission water vessels by 2030. [19]
While some proponents might say that hyperloops are particularly suitable for individual goods transportation, the obstacles in hyperloop development will not be overcome by 2030. The technology is too immature, there are no regulations, the technology lacks societal acceptance, etc. There will be an increasing number of test routes and progress in the development but it is unlikely that there will be commercially operational hyperloop tracks in the near future. [20], [21], [22], [23]
Sources
[1] [9] [10] [12] European Commission. (2020). A fundamental transport transformation: Commission presents its plan for green, smart and affordable mobility. https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-themes/mobility-strategy_en.
[2] Mau, K. (2019, December 19). "Das Auto hat einfach verdammt viele Vorteile". In Zeit Online. https://www.zeit.de/mobilitaet/2019-12/verkehrswende-co2-emissionen-auto-verzicht-push-faktoren/komplettansicht.
[3] ADAC (2017). Die Evolution der Mobilität. zukunkftsInstitut.
[4] Zarif, R., Pankratz, D. & Kelman, B. (2019, April 16). Small is beautiful: Making micromobility work for citizens, cities, and service providers. In Deloitte. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/future-of-mobility/micro-mobility-is-the-future-of-urban-transportation.html.
[5] Volocopter. (2021, July 21). Malaysia Airports, Skyports, and Volocopter Collaborate to Conduct Feasibility Study for Vertiport Deployment in Malaysia. https://www.volocopter.com/newsroom/malaysia-airports-skyports-and-volocopter-collaborate-to-conduct-feasibility-study-for-vertiport-deployment-in-malaysia/.
[6] Tanko, M., Burke, M.I. (2017). Transport innovations and their effect on cities: the emergence of urban linear ferries worldwide. Transportation Research Procedia. Vol. 25 (2017). pp. 3957-3966.
[7] Deloitte. (2016). Future of mobility: What's next? Series on the future of mobility. Retrieved from: https://www2.deloitte.com/de/de/pages/consumer-industrial-products/articles/The-future-of-mobility.html.
[8] European Environment Agency (EAA). (2010, December 10). Car ownership rates projections. https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/car-ownership-rates-projections.
[11] Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport (DG MOVE). (2019, March). Transport in the European Union: Current Trends and Issues. European Commission (EC).
[13] Randelhoff, M. (2021, April 3). Wachstum des chinesischen Schnellfahrstreckennetzes. Zukunft Mobilität. Retrieved from https://www.zukunft-mobilitaet.net/171978/schienenverkehr/hochgeschwindigkeitszug/wachstum-entwicklung-hochgeschwindigkeitsverkehr-schnellfahrstrecken-china/.
[14] Jentzsch et al. (2019, October 17). The Future of Commercial Vehicles. In BCG. https://www.bcg.com/publications/2019/future-commercial-vehicles.
[15] Kim, E. (2016, June 15). The most staggering part about Amazon’s upcoming drone delivery service. https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-savings-from-amazon-drone-deliveries-2016-6.
[16] Garcia, O.R. & Santoso, A. (2019, May). Drone delivery systems: A comparative analysis in last-mile distribution. MIT Megacity Logistics Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Available at https://ctl.mit.edu/pub/thesis/comparative-evaluation-drone-delivery-systems-last-mile-delivery. pp. 15-17.
[17] Lyon-Hill, S. et al. (2020, September 16). Measuring the Effects of Drone Delivery in the United States. Office of Economic Development, Virginia Tech University. Available at https://vtechworks.lib.vt.edu/handle/10919/100104. pp. 16-18.
[18] Moran, O. et al. (2017, May 3). Hybrid Urban Navigation for Smart Cities. International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC). pp. 4-6.
[19] Global Maritime Forum. (2021). Getting to Zero Coalition. https://www.globalmaritimeforum.org/getting-to-zero-coalition.
[20] Mitropoulos, L., Kortsari, A., Koliatos, A., Ayfantopoulou, G. (2021, July 28). The Hyperloop System and Stakeholders: A Review and Future Directions. Sustainability 2021, 13, 15, 8430. doi:10.3390/su13158430 [21] Noland, J. K. (2021, February 8). Prospects and Challenges of the Hyperloop Transportation System: A Systematic Technology Review. IEEE Access 2021, 9, 28439 - 28458. doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3057788 [22] Walker, R. (2018, June). Hyperloop : Cutting through the hype. TRL - The Future of Transport [23] van Goeverden, K., Milakis, D., Janic, M., Konings, R. (2018). Analysis and modelling of performances of the HL (Hypleroop) transport system. European Transport Research Review (2018) 10:41. doi: 10.1186/s12544-018-0312-x