Passenger Cars for Intercity Transportation

Current Car Usage

In most countries in the EU, between 40% and 60% of inhabitants owned a car in 2019 [1], which results in 81.8% of all transportation occurring in the EU is conducted by passenger cars. [2]

Looking at intercity mobility, Burgdorf, Eisenkopf and Knorr (2018) find accordingly that, compared to intercity bus, train and plane, passenger cars are the most frequently used mode. Depending on distance and cause of the trip, it was found that between 27% and 63% of travelers use the car for intercity trips, [3] whereas the German Ministry of Transport finds a modal share of car users of 79% for trips larger than 50 kilometers. [4]

Consumer Perspective

When it comes to comfort, cars are considered to be the most comfortable mobility mode, valued slightly higher than planes, and significantly more comfortable than trains and intercity buses. Concerning travel time, cars are considered to be the 2nd fastest mode among the four tested modes, beaten by planes, but still perceived to be slightly faster than trains. Intercity buses are considered to be the slowest mode. [3]

Being asked about the perceived costs of mobility modes, respondents indicated that cars are perceived to be the 2nd cheapest option, being more costly than intercity buses, but lower priced than trains and airplanes. It is not said that this ranking is actually true in all cases, but perceived costs might in fact be a better indicator for the choice of mobility mode than actual prices. One can therefore conclude that there is a low-budget segment in which cars have a perceived cost disadvantage compared to intercity buses. [3]

One factor that might affect the status of the mode car for intercity mobility is the way travel time is going to be looked at. While travel time was usually considered to be an expense, technological advancements might lead to a shift of this view. Onboard technology offers a much more flexible usage of the travel time, for all sorts of leisure activities online as well as mobile working. Travelling is therefore likely to be considered more of a valued activity, decreasing the cost of travel time. [5]

In the near future, productivity while travelling is quite limited when driving by car. New cars in the premium segment nowadays are being sold with integrated WiFi, which offers the passengers the opportunity to be online during the trip. The problem is therefore not the lack of technology on board, but the fact that drivers need to focus on the road. Considering the average car occupancy of e.g. 1.54 persons in the United States [6], a driver for whom travel time is a cost instead of a valued activity, travelling by car adds a considerable cost to the trip.

Another aspect mitigating the attractiveness of cars as intercity mobility mode is the CO₂ emissions of combustion engines. 86% of current car sales in China, the US and the EU are powered by fossil fuels, leading to greenhouse gas emissions five times higher than when travelling by intercity bus or train. [7] [8] In a study conducted by Prillwitz and Barr (2011), four clusters of users were differentiated.  Two clusters are the “persistent car users” and “frequent car users”, making up 54% of respondents, being middle-aged, mainly use their own car for transportation and tend to vote for conservative parties. However, societal changes lead to the assumption that those segments are shrinking. Besides the “constrained public transport users” (24%), there is also the segment of “consistent green travelers” (22%), which is assumed to be a growing one: “consistent green travelers”  tend to vote green and value sustainable transportation modes. [9] Considering the comparably high amount of CO₂ emissions by combustion engines, this trend puts a disadvantage on cars, especially for longer distances, where emissions are particularly high. [10]

Technologies

The above mentioned prognoses are of temporary nature, since the future of urban car usage will most certainly be heavily altered by alternative powertrains, autonomous driving and shared mobility business models.

The most promising upcoming powertrain for passenger cars is especially the electric engine. Currently, the market share of electric vehicles is still low in the EU, but this share is rapidly increasing. [7] In the past, the reach of electric passenger cars, combined with an immature charging infrastructure was an issue for long distance travelers. Nowadays, electric cars can reach up to 600 kilometers and an increase to up to 1000 kilometers is planned. [11] Hammond (2019) is certain that by 2040 there will be hardly any vehicles powered by combustion engines on the streets. [12] Alternatively, Boston Consulting Group forecasts 35% of car sales in 2035 to be electric vehicles. [13] While electric vehicles nowadays are less CO₂-intense than combustion engine powered cars, an increasing share of renewable energy in the electricity mix will further reduce their carbon footprint. Thus, the above mentioned growing segment of “consistent green travelers” is incentivized to use electric cars, amplifying the market for the automotive industry.

Additionally, there are also voices highlighting the benefits of hydrogen fuel cells, especially for high kilometer volumes, due to higher range and faster refuelling. However, hydrogen fuel cells are most likely going to be interesting for large vehicles with high daily mileages rather than for passenger cars. [14] [15]

Another opportunity for the automotive industry in the future are autonomous vehicles. Level 4 autonomous vehicle are predicted to make up between 30% and 45% of all cars in Germany by 2050 [16]. Level five autonomy might be market ready by 2030. [17] Looking at user acceptance, this offers an immense opportunity for the mobility mode car for intercity transportation. The above mentioned view of travelling as a valued activity instead of a pure cost can be optimized with autonomous vehicles: passengers can be connected, online, are in their private space and do not need to focus on the traffic anymore. This might well lead to the most comfortable way of travelling, given that people value even conventional cars to be relatively comfortable. [3]

Sources

[1] Eurostat (2021). Passenger cars per 1000 inhabitants. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/road_eqs_carhab/default/table?lang=en

[2] European Commission (2021). EU Transport in Figures, p.49.

[3] Burgdorf, C., Eisenkopf, A., & Knorr, A. (2018). User acceptance of long distance bus services in Germany. Research in Transportation Economics, 69, 270-283.

[4] Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur (2017). Mobilität in Deutschland: Ergebnisbericht, p.110.

[5] Banister, D. (2008). The sustainable mobility paradigm. Transport policy, 15(2), 73-80.

[6] Office of Energy efficiency & Renewable energies (2018). Average Vehicle Occupancy Remains Unchanged From 2009 to 2017. https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1040-july-30-2018-average-vehicle-occupancy-remains-unchanged-2009-2017

[7] PwC. (September 11, 2017). Projected vehicle sales in China, the U.S. and the EU between 2017 and 2030, by propulsion technology (in million vehicles) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved December 09, 2021, from https://www-statista-com.eaccess.ub.tum.de/statistics/264754/worldwide-vehicle-sales-by-propulsion-technology-2025/

[8] Umweltbundesamt (2021). Vergleich der durchschnittlichen Emissionen einzelner Verkehrsmittel im Personenverkehr in Deutschland. Retrieved from https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/bild/vergleich-der-durchschnittlichen-emissionen-0

[9] Bundeswahlleiter. (26. September, 2021). Gewinne und Verluste der Parteien bei der Bundestagswahl am 26. September 2021 im Vergleich zur vorherigen Bundestagswahl (Veränderung des Zweitstimmenanteils in Prozentpunkten) [Graph]. In Statista. Zugriff am 09. Dezember 2021, von https://de-statista-com.eaccess.ub.tum.de/statistik/daten/studie/1256846/umfrage/gewinne-und-verluste-der-parteien-bei-der-bundestagswahl-2021/

[10] Prillwitz, J., & Barr, S. (2011). Moving towards sustainability? Mobility styles, attitudes and individual travel behaviour. Journal of transport geography, 19(6), 1590-1600.

[11] Diethelm, M., & Zarychta, D. (2021). Für die Langstreckenfahrer: Diese Elektroautos fahren 2021 am weitesten. Retrieved from https://efahrer.chip.de/e-wissen/fuer-die-langstreckenfahrer-diese-elektroautos-fahren-2021-am-weitesten_10533

[12] Hammond, R. (2019). The world in 2040.

[13] Boston Consulting Group (2021). Mobility. https://www.bcg.com/industries/public-sector/mobility

[14] Volkswagen AG (2019). Hydrogen or battery? A clear case, until further notice.

[15] Quaschning, V. (2020). Electric car, diesel or hydrogen - how do we stop the climate crisis? Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBqNS0nQzPY

[16] Altenburg, S., Kienzler, H., & Auf der Maur, A. (2018). 22. Einführung von Automatisierungsfunktionen in der Pkw-Flotte. Prognos. https://www.prognos.com/sites/default/files/2021-01/adac_automatisiertes_fahren_endbericht_final.pdf

[17] McKinsey & Company. (2021). Autonomous Driving - Overview. https://www.mckinsey.com/features/mckinsey-center-for-future-mobility/overview/autonomous-driving