CV Political Topics: Labor Market

One very controversial topic in the realm of discussion of new technologies has been labor market concerns. This topic is twofold; on the one hand, in Germany, there has been a steady decline in CV drivers and a resulting shortage of labor [1]. On the other hand, the gradual development towards completely autonomous vehicles is raising the ever-present concern of lost jobs and higher unemployment overall. At the moment, this is not an issue; while we are currently at level 3 of 5 of autonomous driving, drivers are still required and necessary [2] [3]. This means that the vehicle can accelerate, break, and steer autonomously due to a high awareness of its surroundings, but still needs human intervention as it is not viable for all road and weather conditions; drivers need to step in based on system requests [2]. However, a future of level 5 autonomy is a future where the autonomous driving system can adapt to all roads, areas, and conditions, and a human driver is not necessary [2] [3]. Between then and now, a phase-out of jobs can be expected, as increasing investments into AD technologies (such as Daimler’s $570 million investments to bring level 4 self-driving CVs onto the market “within a decade” [4]) and faster developments will eventually make the profession redundant. There is also a self-reinforcing mechanism at play: the expectation (and reality) of a driver shortage will favour the adoption of autonomous vehicles [5]. Therefore, political action will likely determine how this shift in the labor market is received by the population; an early reaction to the eventual extinction of jobs and a carefully laid out plan for this adjustment might just ease the blow. Unprepared policy and knee-jerk reactions are likely to cause dismay and frustration at the prospect of autonomy replacing human workers without an acceptable parachute; public opinion heavily relies on policy easing the adjustments and supporting an eventual wave of unemployment in a sector that is ever-growing and already under strain due to the labor shortage.

At the same time, a case for the adoption of autonomous CVs can be made through the reduction of accidents and casualties related to CVs. By automating the driving and decision-making processes, and thus reducing human error and oversight directly causing fatal road accidents, autonomous CVs can stand to gain in popularity. Road accidents with personal injury have been declining steadily since the 1990s due to the introduction and mandating of technological innovations in the CV industry; for example, the Advanced Emergency Braking System (AEBS) has been mandatory throughout the EU by regulation in vehicles larger than 8 tons since November 2015 [6]. Braking systems such as these can detect and prevent dangerous situations on the road much faster than human drivers, since they require a fraction of the reaction time humans do and detect speed and distance of oncoming traffic with much greater accuracy. Other technologies, such as the Blind-Spot-Assist developed by Daimler uses radar sensors to determine whether there are any cyclists or pedestrians in the blind spot, are already contributing to the increase of safety for opposing traffic participants and the decrease in potentially fatal road accidents, particularly within cities [6]. Lastly, technologies such as the Lane Guard Assist aim to decrease potential harm from overexertion and fatigue of drivers, which leads to 1 in 5 accidents involving a CV [6] [7]. All of these safety systems are steps toward automation, letting the technologies take over the more difficult and dangerous tasks at hand. It may thus be less of a challenge to gradually introduce more and more automation to the realm of CVs  through regulation by keeping in mind the potential increase in wellbeing and the lives saved.

Sources

[1] Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur. (2021). Verkehr in Zahlen 2020/2021. Berlin: Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur.

[2] APTIV. (2020). What Are the Levels of Automated Driving? Retrieved from APTIV Mobility Insider: https://www.aptiv.com/en/insights/article/what-are-the-levels-of-automated-driving

[3] Renschler, A. (2020). The commercial vehicle industry at a glance. Munich.

[4] Daimler. (2019). Automated Driving at Daimler Trucks. Retrieved from Daimler: https://www.daimler.com/innovation/case/autonomous/automated-driving-daimler-trucks.html

[5] Jentzsch, A., Janda, J., Xu, G., Wiedenhoff, P., Girisch, A. (2019). The Future of Commercial Vehicles — How New Technologies Are Transforming The Industry. The Boston Consulting Group.

[6] Toll Collect. (2018). Wenn Lkw Leben retten: Neue Technik für mehr Lkw-Sicherheit. Retrieved from Toll Collect - Redaktion Blog: https://toll-collect-blog.de/wenn-lkw-leben-retten-neue-technik-fuer-mehr-lkw-sicherheit/

[7] Evers, C., Auerbach, K., & Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen. (2005). Verhaltensbezogene Ursachen schwerer Lkw-Unfälle BASt-Bericht M 174. Bergisch Gladbach: Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen.